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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
With oil at over $100 a barrel and no end of price increases in sight, will the U.S. economy slide into recession? This paper argues that it will. Bibliography lists 2 sources.
Page Count:
3 pages (~225 words per page)
File: D0_HVOilRec.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
over into recession. Discussion According to many experts, the U.S. went into a recession in March, 2001, but recovered in November, 2001. However, no matter what the experts say, most
people would probably disagree with this assessment. Prices are soaring on essentials like food and clothing; health care is almost out of reach; vacations are a thing of the past.
Wages are stagnant, unemployment is up, people are working long past the age at which they hoped to retire. What recovery? Now it appears that the economy, which is already
staggering, may be headed into a full-blown recession. Nariman Behravesh, who is the chief economist at a company called Global Insight, and who was an economist at the Federal Reserve,
says that it would take "two shocks to bring the economy to its knees. We got one shock in the form of the credit crunch. Oil could be that second
shock" (Kennedy and Richter, 2007). This column was written in November, 2007; at that point, "economists expected U.S. growth to slow to less than 2 percent in the fourth quarter
- half the pace of the third quarter" (Kennedy and Richter, 2007). At UBS in London, economist Andrew Cates saw a 45% chance of a U.S. recession in 2008; this
was up from his predication of a 33% chance the previous month and the reason for the pessimism was oil prices (Kennedy and Richter, 2007). It appears that the world
economy may "dodge the bullet" with regard to recession since "emerging markets continue to expand" (Kennedy and Richter, 2007). However, "gloom is spreading at a speed that suggests were walking
a really fine line ... Even a month ago, you probably wouldnt have thought wed be seeing a sustained credit problem and oil holding up above $85 a barrel." (Kennedy
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