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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 8 page paper looks at the use of opinion polls, defining their use before discussing their potential and accuracy and they way they have been used. The paper includes examples of accurate polling in UK and US elections as well as examples of failed opinion polls and then examines the way in which pollsters try and reduce potential errors. The bibliography cites 24 sources.
Page Count:
8 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEoppolls.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
tool box of a range of professionals, from marketers selling chicken soup to political analysts. Many organisation invest a great deal of money undertaking opinion polls, but, they are also
a tool which has been shown, on many occasions, to be either misleading or totally wrong. As such we are left with the question of whether public opinion polls can
ever be sufficiently representative of the opinion of the population they are meant to reflect. Defining what is meant by an opinion poll, a poll may be defined as
"A survey of the public or of a sample of public opinion to acquire information" (Dictionary.com, 2006) and as opinion is defined as "A belief or conclusion held with confidence
but not substantiated by positive knowledge or proof" (Dictionary.com, 2006). So, an opinion poll must be the survey of the beliefs or thoughts of a population on a subject using
a sample from which it is hoped the views of the entire population may be extrapolated (American Association for Public Opinion Research , 2006, Converse, 1987). The use of
opinion polls has been seen for many years, and the accuracy has often been assumed to be present. One of the first opinions polls recorded was a straw poll in
1824 that was undertaken on Pennsylvania in Harrisburg. This was a political opinion and was seeking to measure the likely result of the election for president. The result showed that
Andrew Jackson had 335 votes and John Adams had 169 votes (Robinson, 1932). This opinion poll was rather unscientific and at this stage the [process was simple and unweighted
(Robinson, 1932). The use of the opinion polls increased, the public and the politicians wanted an idea of the way election may turnout. The way in which opinions polls
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