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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This is an 8 page paper that provides an overview of presidential prediction models. The tenets of Campbell's forecast model are applied to a hypothetical 2012 election. Bibliography lists 3 sources.
Page Count:
8 pages (~225 words per page)
File: KW60_KFprzfor.doc
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
However, from the populist perspective, the general public usually tends to think about statistical significance in predictive terms that are immediately applicable to their lives. For instance, they tend to
think of the function of statistics as being to increases ones chances of winning the lottery, to give but one example. For this reason, predictive assessments based on statistical models
tend to be rather popular; each year, one can witness them employed to predict winners for a variety of public contests, such as television game shows, professional sports competitions, and
perhaps most importantly of all, presidential elections. While a number of models are commonly used to predict matters as important as the next leader of the United States, one has
tended to rise to the forefront of accurate statistical analysis: James Campbells "Trail Heat" forecasting model. A professor and director of Political Science at the University of Buffalo, Campbell has
gained some notoriety among predictive statistics aficionados for the validity of his methods. Since 1992, the model has predicted the winner of the presidential elections with perfect accuracy, and the
margin by which the president won has been within a 1.5% margin of error when compared to that predicted by Campbells model... with one notable exception. This paper will assess
the inner workings of Campbells analytical model, assess its method and accuracy in the 2008 election, compare it to similar competing models, and finally, use the models fundamentals to tentatively
project a winner for the 2010 election. This paragraph helps the student present a broad overview of Campbells trial heat forecast model for predicting the winners of presidential elections.
The model employed by Campbell for predicting presidential election winners is actually somewhat less complex than most people might suppose. In fact, in comparison to the survey instrumentality employed by
...