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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 4 page paper looks at the way statistics may be used in making a decision. In the case used a person believes that they see a friend, but is ignored. The paper uses probability in order to determine whether or not it was likely to be the friend. The bibliography cites 2 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEeverystat.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
example of how this may take place and the way that variables will impact on the decision. In an example we can consider the case of a person who sees
someone they believe is a friend driving away with her boyfriend ignoring them. They feel slighted, but the friend argues that although the couple that were seen may have looked
like her and her boyfriend it was not them. The decision needs to be made whether or not to believe this defence. In most cases there may be a gut
reaction, rather than a considered and logical approach take, as influences, such as knowledge of the friend, and previous experience may impact in the decision that is made, but it
is also possible to use statistics, here there is the potential to use probability. The general approach to probability is to take each independent variable, and as they increase
each subsequent probability needs to be multiple against the exciting probability. In this case we will assume that the friend was described with the following variables; a Caucasian woman, with
blond hair in a ponytail who drove off in a yellow car driven by an African-American male with a moustache and beard. To assess this will assume that there are
the following probabilities given are 1/4 that there is a member of the population who is Caucasian woman, 1/10 that she has blond hair, that it was in a ponytail
1/3, that the accompanying person was an African male 1/10 and that a person has a moustache and beard 1/1000. Data such as this may be gained form different
sources, such as the census reports and vehicle regulations data bases. It is assumed that this data is correct. Due to the long nature of the odds we are using
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