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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
An 8 page paper discussing the difficulty that Harmon Foods (Harvard Case 9-171-248) has in forecasting annual cereal sales. The company is seeking to identify factors influencing variation in cereal sales, but the brand manager makes assumptions he should never consider as being valid. If seasonality is found to be as great a factor as it appears to be, then Harmon can plan to decrease TV advertising during those months in which industry sales of cold cereals are slowest. Dealer promotions, consumer promotions and advertising need to increase in those months in which cereal sales already have been seen to be the strongest. Bibliography lists 2 sources.
Page Count:
8 pages (~225 words per page)
File: CC6_KSmktgRegresAnal.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
Foods produces several consumer food items sold in grocery stores, but its cereal brand Treat has been problematic in sales forecasting. The brand manager has taken it upon himself
to identify issues that may be affecting Treats performance for the purpose of devising a better, more reliable method of forecasting sales for the next fiscal year.
Carswell, the brand manager, has some sound ideas, but he apparently places too much stock in his own abilities to know the customers mind. He
makes assumptions that have little or no bearing in reality, and fails to consider any factors that he has not identified rather quickly and with little follow-through thought.
Influencing Factors The company is beset by an inability to accurately forecast sales for the upcoming fiscal
year. Marketing purchases television advertising time as much as a year in advance in order to gain the most productive rates for air time, then scrambles to secure additional
time when sales are high. This additional time, when available, puts the advertising budget in deficit. Production schedules are disrupted, and profit management maneuvers are rendered virtually worthless.
The company must identify factors that have the ability to have a significant impact on monthly sales of Treat. Some of those
factors can include seasonality; consumer preference for variety; management of promotional efforts; and willingness of retailers to promote the product in an efficient manner.
Regression Analysis The simplest regression model involves only one true variable. "The simple regression model is based on the equation
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