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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 5 page paper provides an overview of the US intelligence reports that surrounded the collapse of the Soviet Union. Bibliography lists 10 sources.
Page Count:
5 pages (~225 words per page)
File: MH11_MHSovDef.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
Reports published by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in 1988, for example, suggest a number of challenges facing the then Soviet Union in terms of their capacity
to maintain economic stability, but there is no definitive statement or focus in these reports that suggest the oncoming fall of the Soviet Union. It can be argued, then,
that the mis-estimations in US intelligence reports regarding the Soviet economy resulted in a lack of focus on significant economic and structural changes, including the likelihood of the fall of
the Soviet Union. The National Intelligence Estimate published in December of 1988 (NIE 11-23-88) focused on Gorbachevs economic programs and the challenges that Gorbachev faced in attempting to implement change.
This report noted a number of important economic factors, including: Soviet increased borrowing; No major increases in Soviet imports; The diverting of funds from defense spending; Large scale modernization
(NIE 11-23-88). At the same time, the report goes on to suggest that the economic programs supported by Gorbachev may face opposition at the time of their implementation, primarily because
of work-related opposition. The report states: "There is some change that Gorbachevs economic programs may not survive. Disruptions, such as widespread reform-related work stoppages or a drastic
drop in performance indicators, might strengthen conservative opposition. Such trends, coupled with the continuing nationality turmoil, could force the leadership into a major retreat" (NIE 11-23-88). While this
may appear to be a statement about the overall status or economic security of the Soviet Union, this statement was less ominous than it appeared. The statistical data
presented regarding the changing nature of the Soviet economy determined a more substantial view of the problems with their economic growth in the 1980s. Fisher (1999) argued that the National
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