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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 4 page research paper that offers a simplified explanation of time series analysis and forecasting and how it is applied to making business decisions. Bibliography lists 3 sources.
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4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: D0_khtsafor.rtf
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is a "set of observations," with each observation recorded within the context of a specific, pre-set time frame (Brockwell and Davis, 2002, p. 1). This time frame can be short=term
or long-term, as data is observed "weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly" (Lind, et al, 2004, p. 651). Similarly, the forecasts that time series analyzes produce can also pertain to different
time periods, as forecasts may extend "more than 1 year into the future, 2-, 5-, and 10=year projections are common" (Lind, et al, 2004, p. 651). In time series
analysis, there are two primary goals, which are (1) describing the "nature of the phenomenon" that is inherent to a series of observations; and (2) forecasting, that is, "predicting future
values of the time series variable" (StatSoft, 2008). There are four principal components to a time series: "the trend, the cyclical variation, the season- variation and the irregular variation" (Lind,
et al, 2004, p. 651). First of all, a secular trend refers to the general direction of the time series (Lind, et al, 2004). For example, the number of employees
at Home Depot shows a steadily increasing trend since the inception of this business in 1993. Cyclical variation refers to the tendency of businesses to go through periods of
affluence, recession, depression and recovery in a fluctuating, but cyclical manner (Lind, et al, 2004). The chart offered by Lind, et al (2004) that graphs the sale of batteries for
National Battery Retailers between 1984 and 2003 provides a good visual example of how these cycles occur over time. A straight red line shows that the overall long-term secular trend
of the company has been steadily upward, but line charting cyclical variations shows periods of prosperity, decline, depression, recession, etc. that dip above and below the line representing the secular
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