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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 6 page paper looks at economic forecasts from three different sources and consider why they are different and the reason for these differences, including the calculation methods and the interaction of the figures. The bibliography cites 4 sources.
Page Count:
6 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEforecs.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
as regression analysis, mathematical equations with different weighting, and even intuition may play a role. Most forecasts come from econometric models. The
level of importance that are attracted to these statistics also indicates the reliance and impact that they are capable of having on an economy. For example, if projections or forecasts
see a recession, this may become a self-fulfilling prophecy due to the way in which people and business will alter their economic activity. However, forecasting is not as definitive science,
there are many deviations and variations that can be seen, even in the leading economic indicators such as GDP and inflation will vary in both definition and calculation. If we
look at forecasts from three sources we will see that there are some differences, in understanding the differences and how they materialise we can then look to the best way
of forecasting, ort learn lessons in the practices that may be seen as least likely to produce the correct results. The first set of forecasts are from Carmetrics.com. The forecasts
here are for the next five years, however, we will look at the forecasts for 2002 and 2003 as annual figures. The GDP, gross domestic product can be measured and
reported in different ways, However, if there is not an allowance for inflation then the figures may be misleading, indicating growth that is accounted for only by inflations. The figure
we will look at here is real growth in GDP, this is the growth in real terms, which is the nominal growth adjusted to reduce the amount of growth that
occurs as a result of inflation. This is projected at 1.6% for 2002 and 2.2% for 2003. This appear to be an optimistic projection for the economy, the unemployment is
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