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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 3-page paper examines the use of Bayesian Theory to determine whether a passenger should purchase hurricane insurance for an October Gulf of Mexico cruise. Bibliography lists 2 sources.
Page Count:
3 pages (~225 words per page)
File: AS43_MTstatcrui.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
season in the Gulf of Mexico. The question well try to answer here involves cruise insurance in the event of a hurricane. In
this case, the best time to travel on a cruise is the week of October 8 - and according to the weather bureau, this week is the height of hurricane
season. The cruise line wont refund money if cancellation comes about due to a hurricane. But for a 30% fee, hurricane insurance can be purchased to ensure that the vacationer
gets his/her money back. Theres obviously a trade-off here - pay the 30% and know, in the event of a hurricane a refund
is coming? Or save the money and pray that the cruise happens without a hitch, but understand that a hurricane could wipe out not only the cruise but a vacation
fund? To determine the answer to this, the Bayes probability theorem, which helps determine the degree of confidence in a decision, based on
available evidence, then assigning a probability to the outcome. Bayes statistical modeling is appropriate in this case, as variables are not defined (no one can seem to predict the probability
of a hurricane occurring to any degree of accuracy). The theorem helps us better understand what were up against and tries to eliminate degrees of uncertainty (In praise of Bayes,
2000). Here is the information we know. 1) According to the cruise line, 5% of Caribbean
cruises during hurricane season are cancelled due to harsh weather conditions (meaning 95% of the cruises continue on). 2) The dates of
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