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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 4 page paper considers the way businesses may make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The paper considers the case of a shop that sells ice cream; a product that is highly sensitive to weather conditions as well as the size and accessibility of the local target market. The paper presents the way in which the shop owner may use existing knowledge, and gather data from third parties in order to assess the best potential order. The methods of assessment, including full cost of improbability, are demonstrated in the paper. The bibliography cites 3 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEdecuncert.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
decisions it is possible to use statistical analysis, using concepts such as probabilities. For a business person who has to make a decision in conditions of uncertainty and understanding of
the statistical processes can prove to be very valuable (Mintzberg et al, 2008). In order to look at the way that statistical analysis may be utilized for business purposes we
can consider the case of a shop which sells ice cream. The has the option of ordering only, which helps the ice cream manufacturer with the ability to for cost
the amount of ice cream that they will need to provide. In return for early orders there are giving retailers a discount, therefore it is in the interests of the
retailers to determine the amount of ice cream they will need in order to benefit from this discount. However, the demand for ice cream is highly variable on a number
of factors, including the weather as well as the way in which business is either increasing or decreasing within the store. For example, a shot may be in an area
where there have been more residential developments, increasing the potential local market. Likewise, store may be in an area where a bypass has been built, and more potential customers are
travelling away from the store (Kotler and Keller, 2008). One of the first approaches that can be utilized in terms of analysis is the use of forecasting. The general approach
for this is the utilization of least squares regression (Curwin and Slater, 2003). This is a process that uses the sales figures of the past two project sales figures for
the future. For example, if the stories looking to for cost the amount of ice cream it may be demanded in June, they can look at the figures for the
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