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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 3 page paper looks at the way that the way two leading indicators; the US prime rate and the number of new build domestic home starts in the US, can be used to help assess the economy and potential demand for tan airline. The forecasts for these two indicators for 2009 – 2011 are considered and the potential impact discussed. The bibliography cites 3 sources.
Page Count:
3 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEindicair.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
particularly important, in order to estimate demand and ensure operations can remain profitable, adapting to the economic climate and demand that is likely to emerge. There are a number
of leading indicators that can be used, in addition to these are performance indicates, looking at the future projections can be very useful. Leading indicators that may be used in
this way include the prime base rate and housing statistics. The difficulty with forecasts is that they are uncertain, so taking more than one is advisable. In many instances they
are unlikely to be in total agreement. Looking at the forecasts for the US prime rate Mortgage-X are predicting a gradual increase over the next nine month so that
the rate is 4% by the December 2009, and then increasing further rising t o 4.25% in April 2010, 4.75% in November 2010 and then 5% in March 2011 (Mortgage
X, 2009). Forecast.org also sees the rates increasing, but not at the same speed, with much slower rises, remaining at 3.25% until the end of the year and by March
2011 rising only to 4.25% (Forecast.org, 2009). In both cases there is a similar trend seen, but there is divergence of the pace of the increase. The current low rates
are a reflection of the economic climate, where the Federal reserve has a very low base rate to try and increase liquidity and spending in the market. The rates arte
only likely to increase as the economy improves therefore, X Mortgage appears to believe the economy will improve at a faster rate. These are good signals for the airline, that
there is improvement, but it also appears to indicate the recover is going to be slow, even with prime rates of 4.75% this is a rate well below the average
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