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Study of hurricanes can provide answers for “planning, emergency management, hazard mitigation, insurance applications, and long-term derivative markets” (Jagger, Elsner and Niu 853). One of the most important uses for the study of hurricanes is predicting when and where they will occur. Bibliography lists 4 sources. jvHurric.rtf
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and casualties from earthquakes. (Jagger, Elsner and Niu 853). For this reason, the study of hurricanes is imperative. Study can provide answers for
"planning, emergency management, hazard mitigation, insurance applications, and long-term derivative markets" (Jagger, Elsner and Niu 853). One of the most important uses for the study of hurricanes is predicting when
and where they will occur. Hurricanes are caused by heat and wind, combined with ocean currents, but it has been difficult to determine
what combinations will result in a hurricane for any given area of coastline. Empirical research has identified several factors contributing weather conditions to hurricanes over the North Atlantic basin. These
include the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. "For instance, the influence of an El Nino event on the frequency of hurricanes over the entire basin is significant, but
its influence on the frequency of hurricanes forming over subtropical latitudes (approximately 25-35N) appears to be small" (Jagger, Elsner and Niu 853). Philip
J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray write that "September is the most active month for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity with about 50% of all hurricane activity occurring during this
month" (Klotzbach and Gray 1109). In light of this, the authors note that "based on hindcasting results from 1950 to 2000, 30%-75% of the variance for most tropical cyclone parameters
can be hindcast by the end of July. This hindcast skill improves to 45%-75% by the end of August" (Klotzbach and Gray 1109). Current research shows that the "probability of
a U.S. landfall during any given September is 67% for named storms, 49% for hurricanes, and 29% for intense hurricanes" (Klotzbach and Gray 1110).
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