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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 4 page paper which examines why professional economic forecasters rely on past data and trends to predict the future. Bibliography lists 4 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TG15_TGeconfore.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
clients longing for relief and turning, with distressing frequency, to todays equivalent of snake oil and witchcraft" (Kacapyr, 1996, p. 3). That is precisely how many people see forecasters,
believing it to be less of a science and more of a mystical practice of men wearing turbans and robes gazing into crystal balls to predict the economic future.
After all, forecasting has been around throughout the course of world history. In the first book of the Bible, for example, God enabled Joseph to interpret the Pharaohs dream,
which made the forecast of seven years of harvest and seven years of famine possible (Namvar, 2000). This was the earliest known economic forecast for it enabled the Egyptians
to stockpile grain and successfully survive and even flourish during the devastating famine (Namvar, 2000). However, contrary to popular belief, economic forecasting involves neither crystal balls nor divine
intervention. It is a science that is heavily dependent upon cumulative theory. Simply defined, economic forecasting is "accurate and timely information about what is likely to happen to
the economy and society in the future" (Namvar, 2000). Economic forecasting is relatively recent, dating back only to the late nineteenth century, when economists Leon Walras and later Vilfredo
Pareto endeavored to express theory into a mathematical form that could be manipulated and easily applied to current and future conditions by merely changing some variables (Brunetta, 1993). By
the mid-twentieth century, most notably as a result of the Great Depression, most world governments began actively collecting various accounting data such as the consumption of goods and services, investments,
and wage statistics in order to not only assess current economic status but as a way of determining what the future might bring. Instead of mysticism and tarot cards,
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