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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 4 page paper discussing items that forecasting planners need to consider when designing a forecasting process. It is the task of the forecaster to determine which direction demand will travel. Organizations must be prepared for increased demand; they also must enter times of downturn with foresight. Each condition requires that forecasts be accurate and complete, at least as far as each is possible without also possessing the ability to predict the future. Bibliography lists 3 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: CC6_KSmktgForec.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
Many "missed" forecasts have been the cause of high stock inventories or shortages in supplies of goods used in providing services. A recent example is the lack of food
and water provided for New Orleans evacuees in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Far more people sought shelter than planners imagined would, leaving all without necessary basics for several
days. Achieving an Accurate Forecast There are many ways that forecasters can approach the forecasting tasks before them. There are prescribed methods,
some of which are: * Market forecast * Sales potential * Sales forecast * Survey of buying intentions * Time series: Trend projection, Na?ve method * Decomposition * Moving
average * Exponential smoothing * Autoregressive moving averages * Correlation models * Regression models * Market factor indices: Buying Power Index (BPI)(Moncrief and Shipp, 1997)
Moncrief and Shipp (1997) say "there is no single best technique for forecasting" (p. 601); they also explain that
the most accurate forecasts result from combining two to four very different techniques. An example is Maxwells, a small retail furniture chain serving beach communities. Though gaining an
accurate sales forecast is important to the company, forecasting retail sales should be approached much more simply than forecasting the next quarters GDP or likely movement in consumer prices.
Simpler techniques are sufficient for Maxwells needs, and the use of simpler methods also serves to keep down the costs of forecasting. Further, the use of simpler, more straightforward
techniques allows businesses and local governments to give more attention to those activities that can cause the organizations to meet the forecasts they make.
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