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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
A 5 page paper assessing current (12/08) economic conditions and making forecasts for 2009. The paper addresses inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, prime rate, housing starts, existing home sales, trade balance and producer price index. Bibliography lists 10 sources.
Page Count:
5 pages (~225 words per page)
File: CC6_KSeconF2009.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
The traditional definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of declining growth, which to date has not occurred. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses
this definition; the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not. Though at least until data for the fourth quarter are in, the US officially has experienced only one
quarter of declining growth, in the third quarter of 2008 when GDP declined 0.50 percent. Even so, the NBERs business cycle dating activities provide the official information, and in
December 2008 the NBER announced that the US economy has been in recession since December 2007 (Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity, 2008).
Some (Donald Trump, television sensationalists) are saying that the current recession is worse than the Great Depression. It is not. To date GDP has declined
0.5 percent, whereas "real GDP declined 27 percent between 1929 and 1933" (Determination of the December 2007 Peak, 2008) and unemployment surpassed 25 percent (Revell, 2008). The purpose here
is to make a forecast of the one-year economic future of the US and suggest mitigation techniques for the federal government. Current Conditions
As of December 12, 2008, some current economic indicators are as illustrated in the table below: Indicator Value Inflation % 3.66 GDP Growth % -0.50 Unemployment % 6.70 Gold $/oz
826.50 Oil $/bbl 46.28 Prime % 4.00 Source: (The Financial Forecast Center, 2008) The lead economist for the National Association of Home Builders
(NAHB) forecasts housing starts, sales of existing single-family homes and interest rates through 2010: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/24/08 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Housing
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