Sample Essay on:
Developing a Model to Explain the Price Movements of a Commodity

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Essay / Research Paper Abstract

This 10 page paper looks at the different influences that will impact on the price of replacement heifers in the beef market and how an econometric model may be developed to explain these movements. Variables examined include factors such as the price of the feed, weather, interest rates and other influences that may impact on the supply or demand in the market. The bibliography cites 8 sources.

Page Count:

10 pages (~225 words per page)

File: TS14_TEhefpri.rtf

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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:

the process, but it is also a very simplistic model, as although supply and demand will be a part of any equation, there are also less apparent factors which will impact on any econometric model that is formulated as a basic paradigm from which to determine the way prices move. The prices that are gained in the cattle markets for heifers are volatile, more volatile than the slaughter market, the ability to predict and understand price movements would therefore help the supplier to the market to adjust supply as well as the buyers to help plan their future purchases. The problem is how to predict and explain price movements in the cattle market for heifers. This paper will show the student how to look at the variables and build a model to determine the price for replacement heifers. The current conditions in the cattle market may be seen as influencing the price of the entire supply chain including that of beef bred replacement heifers. Although the price of beef cattle may be high at the moment, when the cattle are slaughtered they will need to be replaced. The high prices that are being achieved at the end of the beef supply chain are likely to impact down the chain, when it is due to begin after sales of beef stock. The current level of beef prices are currently at their highest ever level (Clayton, 2003). There are many influences that have led to this position. The current ban on Canadian beef has help support the prices (The Kiplinger Agriculture Letter, 2003). However, this may not have had as much impact as have been previously believed. Under the usual USDA Models there is a simplistic reasoning, with the determining of process influenced manly by supply and demand only at ...

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