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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 4 page paper looks at the way that statistics and probability may be used in a business decision scenario. The case used is a retailer who needs to decide how much ice cream to stock, using regression analysis from the past years and probability to assess if the year will be hot and to assess if this will impact on sales. The bibliography cites 2 sources.
Page Count:
4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEicesales.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
the potential probability of an event, or influences that may impact in a decisions there is the potential to make use statistical analysis and use probability to help with making
the decision. In this case we will assume that a shop at a beach has to decide how much ice cream to buy for the month of August. This
is a peak month and over the years there ahs been an increase in the number of visitors to the areas which has lead to an increase in demand. In
the past the store owner has often run out of ice cream before the end of the month, and as such had to bring in ice cream from an alternate
supplier with a high cost, reducing the profit margins. However, the store owner also wants to minimize the ice cream that will be left over as in September the demand
drops significantly and any left over may not be sold. The store owner has the sales figures from the last ten years; this may be used to assess the
potential future with the use of regression analysis. Regression analysis takes the figures from the past and projects them forward assuming that the same general trend will be seen, this
is usually performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method (McCullagh and Nelder, 1987). This is undertaken by plotting the data points on a graph and then drawing a straight
line between all of the data points so that the line takes the route that takes is the closet to each of the data point (the least squares away from
the data points on a graph). If the data is take from the last two years there appear to be two years where there are two years that appear
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