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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
5 pages. This paper explains the use of different graphs, tables, and charts that have particularly interesting characteristics. Topics include the Naïve method of forecasting, product service life cycles, analysis of trends, variable growth and the regression equation. Bibliography lists 5 sources.
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5 pages (~225 words per page)
File: D0_JGAgraph.rtf
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and the regression equation. FORECASTING PRODUCTION USING THE NA?VE METHOD In order to identify the pattern of demand for a given material, or to determine sales forecasting, it needs
to be determined at what point during the production levels need to be increased or decreased on the basis of forecasting of future need. In the fundamental forecasting model,
the demand values are scattered around an average value. In the trend model, the demand either rises or falls steadily over a period of time. The seasonal, which
is also sometimes referred to as naive, describes the principle whereby demand peaks at regular time intervals. The simplest forecasting technique is the Naive method. A Naive
forecast for any period equals the previous periods actual value. For example, if demand for last week was 20 units, the Naive forecast for the upcoming week is 20
units. Similarly, if demand in the upcoming week turns out to be 25 units, the forecast for the following week would be 25 units. The only advantages to
this type forecast are that it has virtually no cost; it is quick and easy to prepare a forecast because data analysis is nonexistent; and it is easy for users
to understand. However, the disadvantages far outweigh the advantages. For one thing, there is inability to provide highly accurate forecasts. The accuracy of a Naive forecast can
serve as a standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques. Therefore, managers must decide whether the increased accuracy of another method is
worth the additional resources required to achieve that accuracy (Barney 49). PRODUCT SERVICE LIFE CYCLE The total revenue is the quantity of a good or service that a firm
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