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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 3 page paper is based on data supplied by the student, using the data supplied for monthly sales over a four year period and creates an index to measure the changes in sales level, and uses the index to make forecasts for the next year. The bibliography cites 1 source.
Page Count:
3 pages (~225 words per page)
File: TS14_TEindexfor.rtf
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Unformatted sample text from the term paper:
four year period, the most suitable starting point is month one of year one. There is also the need to determine the index scale, this may be 1, or 100.
As there is wide variance in the data we will use an index starting point of 100/ This means taking the data point for month one, year one, and converting
it to 100, for this we will divide the figures by 100, with sales of 18,000 converting this to the starting point means dividing it by 180, as this takes
the figures to 100. The remaining data points all need to be reduced in the same way. This will give us the following table Figure 1 Index created out of
provided data Month Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 100.00 250.56 332.22 197.22 2 110.00 258.50 170.78 284.72 3 87.22 122.78 265.56 191.11 4 297.78 229.72 410.50
377.78 5 462.22 255.56 334.44 378.33 6 405.00 232.22 306.67 339.44 7 306.67 221.11 178.78 346.11 8 318.61 356.11 214.44 369.44 9 85.56 264.44 139.00 174.44 10 153.89 239.17 285.00
202.78 11 118.89 218.33 176.61 93.33 12 95.00 57.22 172.78 105.00 Average 211.74 225.48 248.90 254.98 The next stage is to use the data to forecast the following years sales
levels. There are good and bad years, so the best approach may be to use linear regression with the use fo the least squares method. Regression analysis takes the figures
from the past and projects them forward assuming that the same general trend will be seen, this is usually performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method (McCullagh and Nelder,
1987). This is undertaken by plotting the data points on a graph and then drawing a straight line between all of the data points so that the line takes the
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