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Essay / Research Paper Abstract
This 4 page paper looks at probability and how it is used in society. Gambling, the insurance industry and politics are areas referenced. Bibliography lists 4 sources.
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4 pages (~225 words per page)
File: RT13_SA313prb.rtf
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calculus in mathematics in terms of probability, but the nature of the subject matter is still controversial (Honderich, 1995). Someone for example might assert that it will rain, but how
much of that goes to fact (1995)? Other examples of probability or the embrace of the concept are similarly questionable. When in a court of law, the preponderance of the
evidence in a criminal trial must be beyond a reasonable doubt. That is, it is most probable that the defendant committed the deed. But of course, probability is based on
a myriad of facts and human consideration and not on mathematics. Yet, in many areas of life such as the lottery, gambling on horses, and even when buying insurance,
odds of winning or losing are placed. In the case of insurance, of course, no one likes to think of the odds of getting hurt or dying, but that is
exactly what actuaries calculate. For example, if an individual buys life insurance, he or she is asked a number of personal questions. They might be asked for example if they
fly on private planes. A yes answer could mean a higher premium. Why? There is a greater likelihood, or probability, that a small plane will crash than a large
jet. Traveling by jet is seen as inconsequential. One can in fact look at people and make a predictions on how long they will live by their weight, health
habits and general physical well being. Doctors often make predictions in terms of how many months a dying patient will live. Of course, that is opinion and not based on
the science of probability. Actuaries figure out the probability of someone in a certain age category--along with other criteria such as weight, gender and whether or not they have diseases
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